Wednesday, January 30, 2008

I got it wrong: Fed cuts 50 bps to 3.00%


What is a saver supposed to do now? I thought the Fed would only go 25bps after learning that the recent market meltdown (futures down limit) was brought on by SocGen unwinding positions. So distractions abound, and no trades taken. Home inspections this morning, so we are off from 7:45 to 8, and then from 8:20 until noon. I return to see the market has been higher but close to unchanged into the Fed decision. I decide to do some sim trrading since I have decided not to trade on Fed day. But the market isn't moving violently, and my stripped down desktop is not freezing up. Fed goes 50 and market moves unsteadily and unconvincingly higher, but I try to short it (sim) with no signal and get stopped out. I leave to get my haircut (oh, there was also a walk in there) and when I return the market has given up all its gains! I sit here and watch a key support level give way at 1817.50. My entry was supposed to be stop sell at 1817.25 and it was instant gratification down to 11.25 and then 1803. A good bounce with lots of volatility prints 1819.75 and another ideal chance to short against the downtrend line, but I am firmly on the sidelines at this point. Now we have opened AH and it is still falling... 1795.25

No comments: