I am back!

After moving from NJ to NC I am finally back in trading mode. Most trades done today were simply to pay for TS at end of month. NQ has underperformed ES past 2 days. High of day put in early, after a nice anchor TL touch. Second touch looked good but price penetrated sideways, then broke support, starting a downtrend which held at 1828.25 - I did not have this pivot. A nice M formation launched the end of day rally. I did get short at 1866.


I also took one TY trade. TY has been trending nicely, making LL/LH when going down, then HH/HL on the upside. Today it was in a nice buy area, had put in a 113-16 low, and I bought at 113-18+ with a tight 113-17+ stop. Well, after hovering around for a few minutes they took out the 17+s so fast I got filled at 113-17 which was the low print for that move and a HL !!! Then it was up up up... them's the breaks.



Must start to watch and possible trade ES. It has outperformed NQ lately. I need to use very tight stops. Today ME fib provided good support and ES rallied nicely off an M bottom. Resistance became support at the ME and the rally continued.

Lower close ends the week

Mostly sideways but lower lows and lower close. NQ holds up better than other indices.
DB at midday provides some support at 1946 and 1951 midswing low becomes support when it is takent out. 1951 holds and then 1965 but DT at 1965 caps the day.

Consolidation Thursday

Today was little changed and consolidated the heavy losses of the previous 2 days.
Note that from the move high of 2054.25 to yesterday's low of 1954.0 is... yep..
100 points. Today had tradeable moves of 20+ points but ended little changed.

Double bottom early followed by HH and HL. Retracement and a HL clue that it was going back up. DT and it moves back down... Another DB and the day ends.

Trend turns down

Yesterday was a major headfake. Today's high was put in early, then yesterday's low was tested. Once that broke, things got ugly and big losses were the result.

Could this be the flush and up?

Today started lower right at the start of the evening session and pushed below 2000 early, flushing out longs but could that be the end of the correction?







On the anchor a clear W has formed, pointing towards a move higher.
Didn't realize 1990 area was pivotal, but held as a double bottom. <= But... 61.8 retracement was 1989.82 and low was 1990.25, so that tells you something

Does this remind you of last Wednesday?

Yes, it does! Similar price action to last Wednesday. Market opens strong, makes a new high, pulls back a little to make another new high by 3 points, then another new high by 1.25 points... but then breaks an uptrend line and heads lower rather viciously. A pullback goes nowhere and new lows are made but a sharp short covering rally bounces 18 points from the lows.

And like Wednesday.... ES and YM close higher while NQ closes lower. hmmmmmm

Option expiration = V day

Sort of an imperfect V-day. Started at a new high, 2041.50... Was that a pivot? Now it is! Then trended lower until finding support at, 1) 61.8% retracement, and 2) anchor uptrend line, and Test2 of a pivot. low print 2012.75, my 2012 bid goes unhit! Not clear sailing from there, because after 2030.25 it pulls back all the way to 2018.25 but ends the day consolidating around 2035 which not so coincidentally on options expirations parks the QQQQ exactly at 50 !

Failed M bottom leads to higher highs

That's right, early in the day called a failed M bottom and NQ trended higher all day. So Monday was a trend up - Tuesday was mostly consolidation but higher by the end of the day - Wednesday was a big up morning but gave it all back quickly in the afternoon which created a lot of negativity, but Thursday started with that M bottom which failed, then it came back to test the breakout area, then slowly moved higher the rest of the day, took out yesterday's high and closed near the highs. Also printed 50 in QQQQ.

Just when you think it is going up forever

Here is the anchor chart, showing several days of uptrend including today's .... either pullback or reversal. Interestingly, S&P and Dow both closed higher on the day.




.... It doesn't!!

NQ rises after CPI data. Takes out resistance at 2009, then 2016, then 2028 on the way to 2030.75. Pulls back, but only to 2019.50 - Former resistance has become support! So now everyone is bullish and pushes to a new higher high of 2032.75, and then it just trends lower and breaks 2000. Not good!

Day chart:

Consolidation Tuesday

Actually finished up on the day. Started out pure chop, consolidation, then a major headfake down that appeared to break support, but forms a nice double bottom near the POC (which was 1986.75 and LOD was 1985.50) and if you want confluence, there was also an anchor uptrendline touch at that point! NQ proceeds to trend higher from there, low to high ranging 23 points, eeking out a new high for the ove and closing up 8 ish. 1985.50 area could also be viewed as a TEST2 of 1984 former resistance now support.

Trend Day Monday

Here is a good example of a trend day up. All day up, if you will. Low of day was POC, 1963, then 5 waves up, 3 waves down, resistance at 1984 became support in a classic TEST2, if you back it up you can see that 1984 was the midswing confirming the double bottom at 1951. More gains after 1992.75 taken out and a weak test of 2005 next resistance.

Review

16:43] well the safest way to trade
[16:43] is like this
[16:43] this is it - the basic framework
[16:43] I will do a step list
[16:43] of how to beat the market lol
[16:44] 1) Use an anchor chart to determine the trend
[16:44] 2) If there is a trend go to step 3, otherwise, back to 1
[16:44] 3) Once you have determined there is a trend, wait for a retracement to a major S or R pivot, major TL works
[16:45] 4) Patiently wait for reversal formation at that area, this formation should be AGAINST immediate trend but with the anchors trend
[16:45] 5) Apply discipline and solid money management techniques, at all times, make sure reward surpasess risk
[16:46] 6) Ignore all else go back to 1
[16:46] Done

Examples of bad entries

Here are my 3 trades today, all small losers. After missing a great upmove I was poised to buy the pullback. Instead of buying the confluence of trendline and ME (ME can be seen on the chart at 1817.75, I waited too long and bought after the market had already started back up. I remained convinced, and bought again- yet price pulled back to stop me out. 1821.00 held and price took out the middle high, so I reached and bought 1825.00 only to get stopped again by a pullback. So in hindsight, the buy areas were 1817.75 (1818.00 and 1821.00

Need to Improve Entries

I need to improve my entries.

What does that mean and how do I do it? It means I have to enter at a level that makes sense from more than one viewpoint. This is what is called "confluence."

I will look to buy on anchor trendline touches that are also entry chart trendline touches and one other aspect as well, such as ME line support or double bottom.

On the sell side, also look for anchor trendline AND entry chart trendline touches, along with a confirming aspect such as ME or double top.

Also need to avoid moving stops too close. I need to give it 2 full points to run so I don't automatically get stopped out by the noise.

Detailed Analysis of a Bad Day

Market had a horrible day today. I traded it poorly. 7 trades; 4 losers, 2 breakevens, and one very small winner.

First trade, short 1785.25, stopped at next bar high of 1787, so it was almost an ok trade, could have gone for 6 or 7 points.

Next, it looked like downtrend was broken and market traced out a series of higher highs and higher lows, so looking long. Bought the pullback a little too early, but scratched it. Long at 1792.75.

Still seeing HH/HL, so bought pullback. Double bottom and ME support, bought 1789.5 with a 1 tic stop.. 1788.5

Next, sold the break of 1783.00 support, short at 1782.75, didn't feel right (It did in fact bounce from here, so took a small profit. bounced to 1786.75.

Big move down to 1755. Sold bounce to 1762.5 got stopped, sold 1762.5 again, got stopped.. one was a breakeven. Sold next bounce at 1765.75, got stopped on the way to 1769.25, then gave up more or less.

Suggestions from Dr Brett

I love this guy. Here are some of his suggestions that I am borrowing from his blog.
As always I view my blog here as a private trading notebook. If copying stuff from Dr Brett ever becomes an issue I will delete immediately. He says, good traders:

1) Keep score. Relentlessly.
2) Study the market. Relentlessly.
3) Read. Relentlessly.

six keys to successful trading:

1) The successful trader is selective.
2) The successful trader has made the approach his or her own
3) The successful trader has found a niche.
4) The successful trader is creative.
5) The successful trader is always seeking improvement
6) The successful trader is persistent.


My interpretation
1. Shot selection... I have to enter when probability of success is high. Resist
the temptation to trade for a trade.
2. I have to adopt my trading methodology fully. I am AHG.
3. What is my niche?
4. How bout that ES/NQ spread? creative? niche? my own? ??
5. self ex
6. Stay with it! Never give up!!

Big Down Day but Anchor tells you what to do

Another big down day but the anchor downtrendline gave several terrific entries. After the big early collapse on bad economic news, price came up to touch the downtrendline four different times!! Check it out, 1819.25, 6.5 pts lower at 1812.75, 14.5 pts lower at 1798.25, then the one I came back for after being in the city all day, 8.5 pts lower... actually I thought it was 1790.0 at 1789.75. Now afterhours it actually looks like the 2 day downtrend line has been pierced, but we shall see.

I got it wrong: Fed cuts 50 bps to 3.00%

What is a saver supposed to do now? I thought the Fed would only go 25bps after learning that the recent market meltdown (futures down limit) was brought on by SocGen unwinding positions. So distractions abound, and no trades taken. Home inspections this morning, so we are off from 7:45 to 8, and then from 8:20 until noon. I return to see the market has been higher but close to unchanged into the Fed decision. I decide to do some sim trrading since I have decided not to trade on Fed day. But the market isn't moving violently, and my stripped down desktop is not freezing up. Fed goes 50 and market moves unsteadily and unconvincingly higher, but I try to short it (sim) with no signal and get stopped out. I leave to get my haircut (oh, there was also a walk in there) and when I return the market has given up all its gains! I sit here and watch a key support level give way at 1817.50. My entry was supposed to be stop sell at 1817.25 and it was instant gratification down to 11.25 and then 1803. A good bounce with lots of volatility prints 1819.75 and another ideal chance to short against the downtrend line, but I am firmly on the sidelines at this point. Now we have opened AH and it is still falling... 1795.25

Weekend review of Friday trades

Annotated charts showing my poor trade selection on Friday. With a big gap to fill below and coming off a steep uptrend, the smart guys were short early. I waited to buy a trendline touch, which may or may not be excusable, but after the trendline break I kept trying to buy, then sat in a fuddle the rest of the day. Afternoon was not as simple as it looked - stability did fake out many people, but there were at least 2 clear short entries that I missed.

Morning trades/ comments taken from my notebook, ie how I viewed the market at the time.




Some missing midday price action, then the afternoon comments - no trades after the 3 losers in the morning.

One step forward, 2 steps backward :(

Have I used this title before? Market seems to be in a strong uptrend, gaps higher on the open, so I try 3 times to buy it as it trends downward, then cannot find a suitable entry for the rest of the day. NQ was 1873.50 right as the stock market opened at 9:30. At the 4pm bell NQ was around 1793 and at 4:15pm they closed it at the absolute low 1791, 82.5 points lower. Very discouraging to lose money on a day like this. I had a little help from others who read the market wrong, but some of them managed to reverse and find shorts. I only did 3 trades, 3 losers. I know I can do much better than this. 1. Identify the trend. 2. Find a low risk entry. 3. Execute

Hey Where's my post??

Could have sworn I made a post after the last one... something about things going better. Small profits. Oh well

The purpose of this post is to record some very important shit. Point is, must trade for larger profits. In doing so, small losses will occur.

Anek> +10 is not my target
0123110403: just scale out for stops
0123110423: but never got the 1st target
0123110458: I mean think about it
0123110501: I was playing the breakdown
0123110503: did it break ?
0123110504: no
0123110515: had it break what would be the targets?
0123110518: +20s, +30s
0123110525: so is +10 the target
0123110526: no
0123110529: end of story

: happens a lot
but if you dont get used to it, you will never get the +30s
0123110739: this fucker just went up there to stop me out heheh

A small win turns into a small loss

Early wins, but they were too small. This is something that needs work. I have to let good trades run and become 10 and 20 point winners. I move my stop to B/E very quickly, which may be ok, but then I trail my stops too tight and get stopped out for small gains. The first 2 shorts were decent shorts, but could have run for 20 points instead of .25 and .5.






Then the trend changed from down to up, which is ok to not notice - I sold the popup in a downmove and still kept a small profit. The next short I should have realized the trend was up or at least waited for the ME to short. There was a signal at 1877.75 and the following low was 1872.5 but it popped up after that and uptrend continued.



Ill-advised long. Signals were all wrong, bought a pullback too soon anyway. Final trade - missed some good entries and sort of chased this short. Too late in the day, got stopped immediately in choppy market.

Turning the corner

With all the house showing appointments (we are selling our house in Summit NJ) I have only been able to trade a little bit. Some small profits, which is better than no profits, but still need to hang on for some of those bigger profits. I seem to be able to use AHG with discretion in a manner that will produce profits. Here is the anchor chart, showing some up and down but net sideways activity, although going back - today and the last half of yesterday were up.

Start of a new bear market?

Big negative day. Weak employment report, higher unemployment rate, stocks down heavily, especially NASDAQ, dailies look horrible, end of week so weeklies look even worse. Is this the start of a new bear market? Everyone seems to want to declare that a recession is in force. No trades today as I was heavily distracted this morning before the open and never recovered enough to concentrate on trading.

A quiet pre-employment range day

Now that I have figured out how to include charts in my blog entries, let me try to put in a daily chart and use this blog as my TRADING JOURNAL. Today was a typical rangebound pre-employment trade, but the interesting thing to me is that even if you call it a choppy trendless day, note that my big yellow lines are 10 FULL NQ POINTS apart!!! So it goes down, up, down, and up giving the astute trader the opportunity to capture up to 50 or 60 NQ points. I was appropriately waiting for AHG guidance, ie the definition of a trend to emerge, and inappropriately got pulled away from the market for a trip to the dump and a doctor's appointment. AHG did save me from selling it when the trend was actually up. No trades today, but for the record note a rangebound but tradeable pre-employment Thursday.

HAPPY NEW YEAR

What a start to the new year. NQ trades down down down down, smallest pop, then down some more... smaller pop - yes, that's where I finally short it, and miraculously even tho I have missed 99% of the move and am selling near the LOD I make a small profit. Then I go out for a walk and miss a big retracement and when I return it is going down again! Miss that move too, and sell again near the LOD. But this time I realize I am wrong and cover for 1 point. So I have actually made small money on a day when most are raking in huge amounts. Better to make than to lose!