Lower close ends the week

Mostly sideways but lower lows and lower close. NQ holds up better than other indices.
DB at midday provides some support at 1946 and 1951 midswing low becomes support when it is takent out. 1951 holds and then 1965 but DT at 1965 caps the day.

Consolidation Thursday

Today was little changed and consolidated the heavy losses of the previous 2 days.
Note that from the move high of 2054.25 to yesterday's low of 1954.0 is... yep..
100 points. Today had tradeable moves of 20+ points but ended little changed.

Double bottom early followed by HH and HL. Retracement and a HL clue that it was going back up. DT and it moves back down... Another DB and the day ends.

Trend turns down

Yesterday was a major headfake. Today's high was put in early, then yesterday's low was tested. Once that broke, things got ugly and big losses were the result.

Could this be the flush and up?

Today started lower right at the start of the evening session and pushed below 2000 early, flushing out longs but could that be the end of the correction?







On the anchor a clear W has formed, pointing towards a move higher.
Didn't realize 1990 area was pivotal, but held as a double bottom. <= But... 61.8 retracement was 1989.82 and low was 1990.25, so that tells you something

Does this remind you of last Wednesday?

Yes, it does! Similar price action to last Wednesday. Market opens strong, makes a new high, pulls back a little to make another new high by 3 points, then another new high by 1.25 points... but then breaks an uptrend line and heads lower rather viciously. A pullback goes nowhere and new lows are made but a sharp short covering rally bounces 18 points from the lows.

And like Wednesday.... ES and YM close higher while NQ closes lower. hmmmmmm

Option expiration = V day

Sort of an imperfect V-day. Started at a new high, 2041.50... Was that a pivot? Now it is! Then trended lower until finding support at, 1) 61.8% retracement, and 2) anchor uptrend line, and Test2 of a pivot. low print 2012.75, my 2012 bid goes unhit! Not clear sailing from there, because after 2030.25 it pulls back all the way to 2018.25 but ends the day consolidating around 2035 which not so coincidentally on options expirations parks the QQQQ exactly at 50 !

Failed M bottom leads to higher highs

That's right, early in the day called a failed M bottom and NQ trended higher all day. So Monday was a trend up - Tuesday was mostly consolidation but higher by the end of the day - Wednesday was a big up morning but gave it all back quickly in the afternoon which created a lot of negativity, but Thursday started with that M bottom which failed, then it came back to test the breakout area, then slowly moved higher the rest of the day, took out yesterday's high and closed near the highs. Also printed 50 in QQQQ.

Just when you think it is going up forever

Here is the anchor chart, showing several days of uptrend including today's .... either pullback or reversal. Interestingly, S&P and Dow both closed higher on the day.




.... It doesn't!!

NQ rises after CPI data. Takes out resistance at 2009, then 2016, then 2028 on the way to 2030.75. Pulls back, but only to 2019.50 - Former resistance has become support! So now everyone is bullish and pushes to a new higher high of 2032.75, and then it just trends lower and breaks 2000. Not good!

Day chart:

Consolidation Tuesday

Actually finished up on the day. Started out pure chop, consolidation, then a major headfake down that appeared to break support, but forms a nice double bottom near the POC (which was 1986.75 and LOD was 1985.50) and if you want confluence, there was also an anchor uptrendline touch at that point! NQ proceeds to trend higher from there, low to high ranging 23 points, eeking out a new high for the ove and closing up 8 ish. 1985.50 area could also be viewed as a TEST2 of 1984 former resistance now support.

Trend Day Monday

Here is a good example of a trend day up. All day up, if you will. Low of day was POC, 1963, then 5 waves up, 3 waves down, resistance at 1984 became support in a classic TEST2, if you back it up you can see that 1984 was the midswing confirming the double bottom at 1951. More gains after 1992.75 taken out and a weak test of 2005 next resistance.

Review

16:43] well the safest way to trade
[16:43] is like this
[16:43] this is it - the basic framework
[16:43] I will do a step list
[16:43] of how to beat the market lol
[16:44] 1) Use an anchor chart to determine the trend
[16:44] 2) If there is a trend go to step 3, otherwise, back to 1
[16:44] 3) Once you have determined there is a trend, wait for a retracement to a major S or R pivot, major TL works
[16:45] 4) Patiently wait for reversal formation at that area, this formation should be AGAINST immediate trend but with the anchors trend
[16:45] 5) Apply discipline and solid money management techniques, at all times, make sure reward surpasess risk
[16:46] 6) Ignore all else go back to 1
[16:46] Done