Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Examples of bad entries


Here are my 3 trades today, all small losers. After missing a great upmove I was poised to buy the pullback. Instead of buying the confluence of trendline and ME (ME can be seen on the chart at 1817.75, I waited too long and bought after the market had already started back up. I remained convinced, and bought again- yet price pulled back to stop me out. 1821.00 held and price took out the middle high, so I reached and bought 1825.00 only to get stopped again by a pullback. So in hindsight, the buy areas were 1817.75 (1818.00 and 1821.00

Need to Improve Entries

I need to improve my entries.

What does that mean and how do I do it? It means I have to enter at a level that makes sense from more than one viewpoint. This is what is called "confluence."

I will look to buy on anchor trendline touches that are also entry chart trendline touches and one other aspect as well, such as ME line support or double bottom.

On the sell side, also look for anchor trendline AND entry chart trendline touches, along with a confirming aspect such as ME or double top.

Also need to avoid moving stops too close. I need to give it 2 full points to run so I don't automatically get stopped out by the noise.

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Detailed Analysis of a Bad Day

Market had a horrible day today. I traded it poorly. 7 trades; 4 losers, 2 breakevens, and one very small winner.

First trade, short 1785.25, stopped at next bar high of 1787, so it was almost an ok trade, could have gone for 6 or 7 points.

Next, it looked like downtrend was broken and market traced out a series of higher highs and higher lows, so looking long. Bought the pullback a little too early, but scratched it. Long at 1792.75.

Still seeing HH/HL, so bought pullback. Double bottom and ME support, bought 1789.5 with a 1 tic stop.. 1788.5

Next, sold the break of 1783.00 support, short at 1782.75, didn't feel right (It did in fact bounce from here, so took a small profit. bounced to 1786.75.

Big move down to 1755. Sold bounce to 1762.5 got stopped, sold 1762.5 again, got stopped.. one was a breakeven. Sold next bounce at 1765.75, got stopped on the way to 1769.25, then gave up more or less.

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Suggestions from Dr Brett

I love this guy. Here are some of his suggestions that I am borrowing from his blog.
As always I view my blog here as a private trading notebook. If copying stuff from Dr Brett ever becomes an issue I will delete immediately. He says, good traders:

1) Keep score. Relentlessly.
2) Study the market. Relentlessly.
3) Read. Relentlessly.

six keys to successful trading:

1) The successful trader is selective.
2) The successful trader has made the approach his or her own
3) The successful trader has found a niche.
4) The successful trader is creative.
5) The successful trader is always seeking improvement
6) The successful trader is persistent.


My interpretation
1. Shot selection... I have to enter when probability of success is high. Resist
the temptation to trade for a trade.
2. I have to adopt my trading methodology fully. I am AHG.
3. What is my niche?
4. How bout that ES/NQ spread? creative? niche? my own? ??
5. self ex
6. Stay with it! Never give up!!

Big Down Day but Anchor tells you what to do


Another big down day but the anchor downtrendline gave several terrific entries. After the big early collapse on bad economic news, price came up to touch the downtrendline four different times!! Check it out, 1819.25, 6.5 pts lower at 1812.75, 14.5 pts lower at 1798.25, then the one I came back for after being in the city all day, 8.5 pts lower... actually I thought it was 1790.0 at 1789.75. Now afterhours it actually looks like the 2 day downtrend line has been pierced, but we shall see.